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World Eventswill-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026Open

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

polymarketView on polymarketAdded Apr 18, 2026
YesBuy Yes
12¢
12% implied probability
NoBuy No
89¢
89% implied probability
Volume$103.2K
Liquidity$28.2K
Open Interest—
ExpiresDec 31, 2026
Yes Price$0.12
No Price$0.89
ResolvedPending
OutcomePending

Probability Distribution

Yes 12%
89% No

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market Details

ID27495
Platformpolymarket
CategoryWorld Events
Subcategorywill-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026
StatusOpen
CreatedApr 18, 2026
ExpiresDec 31, 2026
Resolved—