Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
Probability Distribution
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held. If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.