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PoliticsKXRECSSNBEROpen

Will there be a recession in 2026?

kalshiView on kalshiAdded Apr 17, 2026
YesBuy Yes
24¢
24% implied probability
NoBuy No
77¢
77% implied probability
Volume$1.75M
Liquidity—
Open Interest$663.7K
ExpiresJan 31, 2027
Yes Price$0.23
No Price$0.77
ResolvedPending
OutcomePending

Probability Distribution

Yes 24%
77% No

Description

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Market Details

ID8707
Platformkalshi
CategoryPolitics
SubcategoryKXRECSSNBER
StatusOpen
CreatedApr 17, 2026
ExpiresJan 31, 2027
Resolved—