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miscKXTRUMPBEARCASECOMBOOpen

Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

kalshiView on kalshiAdded Apr 17, 2026
YesBuy Yes
18¢
18% implied probability
NoBuy No
83¢
83% implied probability
Volume$141.1K
Liquidity—
Open Interest$71.3K
ExpiresDec 31, 2027
Yes Price$0.17
No Price$0.82
ResolvedPending
OutcomePending

Probability Distribution

Yes 18%
83% No

Description

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Market Details

ID6677
Platformkalshi
Categorymisc
SubcategoryKXTRUMPBEARCASECOMBO
StatusOpen
CreatedApr 17, 2026
ExpiresDec 31, 2027
Resolved—